Linkpost to my blog, with interactive figures. This post covers a lot of the same material and E. T. Jaynes Probability Theory Chapter 10, which I really loved and thought could do with some visuals.DiscussLæs hele historien hos lesswrong.com →

IntroAt ML4Good, we run annual follow-up surveys to keep track of what people are doing and to measure our impact. In late 2025, we sent our alumni survey to 340 alumni, 223 of whom responded. Of those, 135 are now doing something in AI safety, adding up to about 98 full-time equivalents (FTE). After estimating outcomes for…

A guide to unintended consequences of AI safety interventions and how you can mitigate them.IntroductionMy cofounder and I are launching Impartial Projects, a studio for AI safety field strategy. We hope to start the projects most urgently needed in the AI safety ecosystem (which we understand to include AI governance). We think that the founding…

[lightly edited from an X.com post]I personally knew Ophelia Bauckholt before she died in a shootout that also left a border patrol officer dead. I suspected immediately that her being a fan of Ziz had something to do with it. And I decided to post about her and Ziz, on X.com. This sparked some online…

TL;DR agents seem to still be bypassing site paywalls, browser restrictions and leaking benchmark questions as of October 14 2026! I have not found any evidence of them actually hacking or coordinating. this is distinct from the other swarm fleet report released today regarding Tencent.Backgroundurlquery.net is a free service that allows you to query a…

The impetus for doing this was provided in large part by Charles Renshaw-Whitman.Learning dynamics people suggested to me that noise was essential in the training of neural networks. I thought this was kind of counterintuitive— I usually naively operate from a model in which the pretraining data basically specifies the outcome by virtue of the…

In this post, I try to briefly make the case for making models good at moral philosophy. To be up front, aside from some niche areas of moral philosophy, I don’t actually think this is the most important thing to work on for most people. But, depending on the exact scope, I do think it’s…

Epistemic status: two cases and the statute behind them. The first case rests on one side's account in a lawyer's call-in video; I have not seen her file. I am not a lawyer. I could not find a base rate.AI use: a Codex session did the research: pulled the video captions, found the Policy Manual…

Epistemic status: Draft-Quality. Partially motivated reasoning.After my “Not Pinning Your OpenRouter Provider Might Invalidate Your Research” post, a representative of an AI marketplace reached out to me about providers and reproducibility. I unofficially chatted with a representative there[1] about this essay, but they do not endorse this document.[2]This document is entirely human written. Particular research investigations…

An international treaty banning superhuman AI will, necessarily, require the arrest of rogue AI developers who violate the treaty. But who should be authorized to conduct these arrests? Should there be some sort of international concurrent jurisdiction, allowing at least some countries to conduct arrests of defectors within other countries’ territory?The default approach – allowing…